--- headline: "Humanoid Robots Race to Trillion-Dollar Market as SoftBank and Goldman Signal Massive Investment Wave" slug: humanoid-robots-trillion-dollar-investment-surge category: business story_number: "06" date: 2026-06-04 author: The Vault AI tags: [humanoid-robots, physical-ai, investment, softbank, goldman-sachs, nvidia, china, barclays] ---
# Humanoid Robots Race to Trillion-Dollar Market as SoftBank and Goldman Signal Massive Investment Wave
The race to build humanoid robots has gone from science-fiction curiosity to Wall Street obsession in a matter of months. With Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang declaring a $40 trillion total addressable market for physical AI, SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son hunting for the next trillion-dollar company in robotics, and Goldman Sachs raising its market forecast sixfold, the humanoid robot sector is attracting a surge of capital that could reshape manufacturing, healthcare, and daily life within a decade.
The numbers are staggering and accelerating. Goldman Sachs Research now projects the humanoid robot market will reach $38 billion by 2035, up more than six times from a previous estimate of $6 billion. The bank raised its shipment forecast fourfold to 1.4 million units over the same period, citing AI progress and a dramatic 40 percent year-over-year decline in manufacturing costs that far exceeded its original 15-to-20-percent annual projection.
"AI progress surprised us the most," wrote Jacqueline Du, head of China Industrial Technology research at Goldman Sachs, pointing to breakthroughs in end-to-end AI that allow robots to train themselves rather than relying on hand-coded instructions from human engineers.
The bullish chorus extends well beyond Goldman. At Computex 2026 in Taipei, Huang used his keynote to frame physical AI as the defining opportunity of the next era, unveiling Nvidia's Isaac Groot N1 foundation model for humanoid robots and announcing partnerships with Agility Robotics, Boston Dynamics, and XPENG Robotics. Morgan Stanley projects humanoid robots alone could be worth $5 trillion by 2050, while RBC Capital Markets pegs the broader opportunity at $9 trillion, with an additional $3 trillion in software and services revenue modeled on smartphone app-store economics.
"Humanoid robots could operate similarly to smartphones, with users downloading applications from an app store to expand the robot's capabilities," said Tom Narayan, Global Autos Analyst at RBC Capital Markets.
SoftBank's Son is positioning himself at the center of this wave. Speaking at a CNBC event in early June, the Japanese billionaire identified both humanoid and industrial robotics -- "with physical AI as a core" -- as the next trillion-dollar business opportunity. He called the current AI revolution "50 times bigger" than the dot-com boom and described it as "just the beginning" of a technological shift that could last 50 to 100 years. SoftBank's $5.4 billion acquisition of ABB's robotics division last October underscored his conviction, and the firm is reportedly in early talks to anchor an $800 million funding round for Agile Robots.
Barclays, in its flagship 71st Equity Gilt Study, outlined two distinct deployment waves. The first, already underway through 2030, targets manufacturing, logistics, agriculture, and construction -- sectors with repetitive, hazardous, or labor-scarce tasks. The second wave, expected after 2030, will extend into healthcare, elderly care, education, and hospitality. The bank estimates the market could hit $200 billion by 2035.
China's Commanding Lead
Perhaps the most consequential dynamic is geographic. China accounted for 85 percent of global humanoid robot deployments in 2025, with Shanghai-based AgiBot alone shipping over 5,100 units to claim 39 percent of the worldwide market. Unitree Robotics plans to ship 20,000 humanoid robots in 2026, nearly quadrupling its 2025 volume. Morgan Stanley has doubled its 2026 China sales forecast to 28,000 units.
The cost advantage is stark. Chinese manufacturers produce humanoid robots at roughly half the price of Western competitors, often around $50,000 per unit, leveraging supply chains built through the electric vehicle boom. RBC estimates China could capture 61 percent of the entire $9 trillion global market by 2050.
Meanwhile, total global production in 2026 is estimated at 100,000 to 150,000 units -- a near tenfold expansion from the prior year. Unit costs have fallen from a range of $50,000-$250,000 to $30,000-$150,000, with Goldman Sachs expecting further reductions that could accelerate factory applications by a year and consumer applications by two to four years.
Risks and Reality Checks
For all the euphoria, significant barriers remain. High-precision components needed for humanoid robots are still supply-constrained, and AI capabilities for complex manipulation and natural human interaction have not been proven at commercial scale. Barclays notes that household robots capable of tasks like cooking and caregiving may be 20 or more years away from mainstream viability.
There are also geopolitical complications. China's dominance in production and deployment raises questions about technology transfer, supply chain dependency, and national security -- concerns amplified by recent espionage legislation that has some Western investors on edge.
Still, the convergence of plunging costs, leaping AI capabilities, and unprecedented capital flows suggests the humanoid robot industry has passed an inflection point. Whether the ultimate market reaches $9 trillion or $40 trillion, the investment community has made its bet: physical AI is no longer a question of if, but when.
"AI progress surprised us the most."— Jacqueline Du, Head of China Industrial Technology Research, Goldman Sachs