Wall Street faces a paradox: as big tech commits $660-690 billion to AI infrastructure in 2026--a 74% increase from 2025--investors are rapidly fleeing AI stocks.
Microsoft shares have fallen 26% from their highs. Palantir is down nearly 20%. Oracle dropped 28%. Amazon plans to spend $200 billion this year on data centers and AI chips.
"These are real firms with real cash flows, not concept stocks," said Jeremy Siegel, Wharton economist.
OpenAI generates roughly $20 billion in ARR--just 3% of the $660-690 billion hyperscalers plan to invest. But companies report AI infrastructure is supply-constrained, not demand-constrained. Gartner says AI has entered the "Trough of Disillusionment"--not the end, but the end of the beginning.
“The market is finally asking the right question: who actually makes money from AI?”
— Dan Ives, Managing Director, Wedbush Securities
-12%
Infra stock decline
+8%
App stock gain
$200B+
2026 AI capex